Статьи

Stabilizing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to protect the populace from the adverse effects of inflation necessitates appropriate measures at both political and economic governance levels. This study examines the impacts of imports (IM) and exports (EX) on inflation (CPI) in Afghanistan using data from 1990 to 2023. The findings from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model indicate that both IM and EX significantly impact CPI in the short and long term. A robustness check employing the Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) machine learning technique further validates these results. The analysis confirms that international trade has a substantial and positive effect on CPI. Additionally, in the context of Afghanistan, political instability acts as a positive moderator, amplifying the influence of imports and exports on inflation. The study concludes that the country requires a reevaluation of its policies regarding exchange rates and economic growth to mitigate the negative effects of imports, exports, and political volatility on the stability of the CPI.