Статьи

Innovation processes are strongly in uenced by changes in economic, political, technological and other external factors. For instance, economic instability and political uncertainty can both stimulate and limit innovative activity in organisations. Transmodern innovation is a concept that involves scienti c and technological advancements that may remain unutilised until favourable changes occur in technological or economic conditions. The purpose of this study is to develop a conceptual model for transmodern innovation that takes into account the dynamics of innovation, including the intensity, economic prerequisites, external changes and degree of innovation adaptation. This model will help organisations to better understand and respond to the complexities of the innovation process. The resulting model is a comprehensive tool for analysing changes in innovation activity and the external environment over di erent time phases, including the initial state (t0), the transition to new conditions (t1) and the nal state (tx). In this model, the ‘Final stage of tx’ block represents the nal stage, which allows us to draw conclusions about the success of adaptation and innovation development. This is the basis for formulating strategic conclusions and recommendations for future development.

The contemporary information landscape is characterised by a huge amount of data available for analysis using a variety of research tools and methods. Considering the limitations of using individual models and methods, it is worth employing an approach that combines functional and logical autoregression methods to conduct a more accurate analysis of trends and topics in the information space. Considering this context, this work aims to develop an algorithm to identify and analyse topics that would be relevant in the future using autoregression methods. The process begins with the quantification and normalisation of data, which significantly affect the quality of analysis. The main focus of this study is to implement the autoregression method to analyse long-term trends and predict future developments in the selected data. The proposed algorithm evaluates the forecast of these future developments and analyses graphical trends, thus conducting a more detailed study and modelling of future data dynamics. The regression coefficient is used as a quality criterion. The algorithm concludes with a polynomial function to help identify topics that will be relevant in the future. Overall, the proposed algorithm can be considered an effective tool for analysing and predicting future trends based on the analysis of historical data, thus contributing to the identification of prospects for technological development.